baratillo @ cubao

Is the assembled political forces against Arroyo strong enough to put her down. Laying aside (for the meantime) the strategems and legality of their actions who are the people that compromise the Political Opposition and as an alliance are they strong or weak?

The Leftist Groups

Street Parliamentarians from the Left of Center who have joined mainstream politics. The consistent Oppositionists of the country. Often they are allied with environmental, nationalistic, and pluralistic causes. Their successes in politics seem to stem in select local areas and in Party List victories. Most if not all Leftist in Congress entered it through the party list system - they were not locally elected. It could be an advantage in terms of winning seats in the house but in the long term it is detrimental to capturing the congressional seats of a locality. If they follow this course of action they will never get the numbers to win a government. The next best thing for them to do is to piggy back on revolts. Similar to what they did during Edsa Dos. Unfortunately or fortunately for them the alliance with Arroyo and company did not work out. The biggest problem though with the Left is their perceived association with armed struggle of Jose Ma Sison and National People’s Army. This it seem would be their achilles heel and the reason why people in general do not trust them. Wny support a party that espouses a belief that has been overtaken by capitalism and has resulted in establishing as much dictators in the world as the militarists? And now they even plan to counteract the government’s propaganda with a speech from Fidel Castro? Is democracy sriving and living in Cuba? What is the reason why Cubans leave their country? There are probably a couple of things that the Leftists can do to gain political ascendancy: (One) the Leftist parties must make a clean break and renounce the Communists Armed Struggle in public,(Two) Depart from the use of Communist icons that have been tarnished with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the foray into capitalism of the People’s Republic of China, (Three) Take a tip or two from Deng Xiaoping and his cats.

The Trapos

Perhaps the most pragmatic breed of politicians in the Philippines. Most are descended from the original cabezas used by the Spaniards to collect taxes. Unfortunately, one does not lineage to become a trapo it takes a little bit of learning to do so. During the initial years of the Cory Aquino Presidency several trapos switched side from Marcos to Cory earning them the nickname Balimbing (the fruit with many sides). Every time there is a change of power expect a radical shift in allegiance. Party loyalty is almost non-exsistant, instead what you have are gossamer thread political alliances managed by the most consumate politician. There are trapos on both sides of the political fence. But there are probably more trapos on the administration side because this is where most of the deals are made. Trapos in the Opposition are probably there to build up there career but are always on the look out for the next political rigodon.

Some Coryistas and Some from the Center

These were the people who hated the Trapos and distrusted the Leftists but were able to do something none of the first two groups have ever done. These people became part of a movement or movements that succesfully ousted the natioanl leader of this country. They have also had the taste of power. Some have become members of government and even some have become members of Congress and the Senate. They also helped Arroyo obtain the Presidency of the Republic. However, last year after showing support and serenading the President they called a press conference at Hyatt and participated in the synchronised self-resignation and call for the resignation of the President for the day. To me it seemed they were trying to jump the gun on the then Opposition froces and maintain influence over national policy. They failed to factor in the resolve of Arroyo. Now they are allied with the Left and a group of Trapos attempting to impeach GMA.

State of the Opposition

Yet despite the efforts of these assembled host of political forces it has failed to impeach the President even in the name of Truth, Justice, and Morality. As a political force it seems to be loud only to the press , visible only in the cities, and at best alliances between the groups are shallow. It has done nearly all the trick in the book to agitate the political situation and even recruit fellow travellers to champion their cause. And if it fails to move a target group, the middle class for example, it then moves to label the group as apathetic and cry to the high heaven why? what is happening?

Is it so weak that it has to enlist the members of the clergy?

Will they succeed now with the new impeachment case? Who knows what cards Fate has dealt this time around. Win or lose this present alliance will go the way of most alliances - disintegration. Only one clique will come out on top and the rest will be back in the trenches again.